U.T NEWS SPL. 'INDIA' IS PROGRESSING TO WIN 2024 LIKE 2004.

11 FACTORS, WHY 2024 IS A REPEAT OF 2004: *"WHY INDIA ALLIANCE WILL WIN"*

By *Sanjay Jha*

After the end of second phase, a few key take aways emerge:

TRUST/WORD OF MOUTH IS VERY IMPORTANT.

1) The voter is fed up of lies, spin-doctoring and subpar propaganda. They trust no one. But after 10 years in power, the trust-deficit with BJP is highest.

RULING PARTY MUST DEPEND UPON THEIR ACHIEVEMENTS.

2) There is a huge fatigue factor with Modi; the standard accusations of dynasty, appeasement and corruption tag is not working at all, as people see the same in the BJP  and probably worse. Strange as it may sound, he is both BJP’s asset and a liability.

ANTI.RELIGION SPEACH CREATS DIS HARMONY.

3) The anti-Muslim/minorities polarization of Modi is not working and has further damaged his credibility. The crude, vulgar and cheap potshots have angered the sensibilities of the common Indian or at least left them extremely dismayed.

NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS.

4) Modi/BJP thought that the 2024 election was done and dusted after the consecration ceremony of the Ram Temple. But barring a few pockets in northern India, the feel-good factor is having negligible impact as an electoral factor. India has moved on to bread-and-butter issues, BJP’s Achilles heel, unemployment and inflation etc.

VOTERS CHOICE ARE MORE POWERFUL.IT SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN GRANTED.

5) The arrogance of power led to Modi announcing a sure-shot victory of 370 seats; this has led to a counterwave in support of the underdog, the Congress/INDIA alliance.  Voters don’t like to be taken for granted, especially when the incumbent has actually underdelivered, and the alternative, despite its problems, seems more sincere.

AUTOCRATIC ACTIONS HAVE NEGATIVE IMPACT.

6) Modi made a strategic blunder in throttling Congress bank accounts, arresting Arvind Kejriwal,Soren and threatening opposition.This message went to world level through U.N.objection.

 That has since become the national narrative of the 2024 elections; fear and hate is being seen as Modi’s legacy, two very powerful human emotions. What started out as a funny description has now become BJP’s political brand : It is a Washing Machine.  Every Indian knows and castigates the politics of vendetta. The ED/CBI/Income-Tax Trimurti abuse is the albatross around the BJP’s neck. The Electoral Bonds scam drove a huge nail in the coffin.

DEVELOPMENT MANIFESTO IS EXPECTED TODAY.

7) The Congress Manifesto has become the talking point of the 2024 elections: it is democratic, liberal, fair, inclusive and has something for everyone. It is a masterpiece, and the Congress has distributed it aggressively. By ridiculing the same with communal slurs, all repugnant lies, Modi has only accelerated its curiosity and ended up getting more to know about it. Women, youth, farmers, poor and the socially/economically disadvantaged, middle -class, industry ( no threats of tax terrorism) all would benefit from it.

MIS.INFORMATION CAN BE EASILY VERIFIED.

8) Rahul Gandhi has got under the skin of Modi and BJP. For long maligned and vilified through a misinformation/disinformation campaign by the BJP IT Cell, his two successful Bharat Jodo/Nyay Yatras have transformed his image and confidence. Modi may still sound bombastic on a teleprompter but he comes across as a petty theatrical performer; Rahul, no matter what his critics say, is refreshingly authentic. People like him, they trust him. In 2014, every time Congress attacked Modi, the latter gained. Now the more the BJP mock him, the higher goes Rahul’s graph. It is a dramatic reversal.

YOUTH ARE THE DECIDING FACTORS.

9) Have you noticed how little the BJP talks of the first-time voters?? Because Gen Z is more tuned to political realities; they are deeper into issues like governance, inclusiveness, climate change, mental health, social media regulation, jobs etc. The youth are not getting conned by the TV hype or WhatsApp University forwards. The millennials have borne the brunt of many economic crisis, political upheavals, globalization backlash, fake news and authoritarian leaders, and allowed themselves to be seduced by the PR and publicity. They misconstrued leadership to being tough and hard even at the cost of freedom of expression. Gen Z has challenged that. And that will have a huge bearing in this election.

FLOATING VOTERS ARE THE KEY TO WIN.

10) The floating voter determines elections everywhere; but in India that is the biggest chunk at around 50-60%, unlike the US/UK where the voting patterns are more predictable. Both BJP and Congress stabilize at around a core vote-bank of 20% each. Those who assume ( BJP seems to have made a grievous miscalculation) that BJP’s big jump by around 72% ( 31% vote-share) in 2014 and again by 22 % in 2019 ( 37.8% vote-share) is on account of Hindutva consolidation are making a big error ( if that was the case, BJP would not lose several state elections). That floating voter, expecting governance, development, jobs and a democratic syncretic society is leaving the BJP on account of feeling betrayed, which explains the big dips in voting in BJP seats in the first two phases. BJP’s vote-share should dip significantly, although it may be compensated by gains elsewhere or get more concentrated in safe seats that assure victory. But one thing is clear, BJP faces headwinds, and a sharp decline is potentially happening.

POLITICS IS LIKE SPORTS. MOMENTUM.

11) The Momentum factor: Politics like sports is influenced by momentum. You win, you keep winning. But that spell does not last forever. Once it reverses, it goes the other way. The duration of the spell is a function of resilience, quality of competition and often, luck. Right now, Congress and INDIA alliance has a perceptible tailwind, a visible momentum. The BJP could soon have to adopt a Stop-Loss strategy; further phases could spell more bad news, as it usually gets progressively worse. But Modi may have already played his last card of polarization.

 

My estimation: BJP will peak at most at 210-15, and could even come down below 200. UP could deliver a knockout blow.

CHANGE IS EXPECTED.IT WILL HAPPEN.

 Across India, change seems to be the keyword.  Barring an unforeseen black swan moment, the momentum shift indicates a rising support for INDIA alliance. We are seeing a repeat of 2004.

 

Do share widely on social media and WhatsApp as we are at a crucial stage of the election.

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